Tesis doctoral de Islam M. I. K. Hassouneh
Food markets worldwide have been strongly affected by recent shocks such as food scares and the outbreak of the biofuels market. The present thesis makes a significant contribution to the existing literature on price transmission by shedding light on the impacts that these food market shocks have had on food price levels and stability. To do so, recent developments in time series econometrics are applied. three specific objectives have been pursued in three papers that constitute the main body of the dissertation. In the first paper, a regime-switching vector error correction model is applied to monthly price data to assess the impact of bse outbreaks on price relationships and patterns of transmission among farm and retail markets for bovine in spain. Different regimes within the model represent different price behavior under different market conditions. To evaluate whether different magnitudes of the bse food scare elicit different food price responses, a bse food scare information index is developed and used as the variable determining regime-switching. Results suggest that bse scares affect beef producers and retailers differently. While consumer prices are not found to respond to bse scares, producer prices are adjusted as a response to the crisis. The magnitude of the adjustment is found to depend on the magnitude of the food scare. in the second paper, a bivariate smooth transition vector error correction model is applied to monthly poultry price data to analyze the effects that avian influenza has had on price transmission along the egyptian poultry marketing chain. As in the previous paper, in order to reflect consumer awareness of the crisis, an avian influenza food scare information index is developed and used within the model as a transition variable. While food scare information indices have been used to assess the economic impacts of food scares on developed countries, ours is the first attempt to use them in the context of a developing country. Our results show that price responses to deviations from the market equilibrium parity depend on the magnitude of the avian influenza crisis. Further, these adjustments are found to have very different implications for market equilibrium: during the crisis retailers use their market power to increase marketing margins. In contrast, wholesaler margins are found to decline. Results also suggest that food safety information indices contribute to a better understanding of the economic effects of food scare crises in developing countries. in the last paper, error correction models estimated both using multivariate local linear regression and conventional parametric techniques are applied to assess price linkages and price transmission patterns between food and energy prices in spain. More specifically, the models study the links between biodiesel, sunflower and crude oil prices. Results suggest the existence of a long- run, equilibrium relationship between the three prices studied. Biodiesel is the only variable that adjusts to deviations from this long-run relationship. Local linear regression techniques show that the speed of adjustment of biodiesel prices is faster when biodiesel is relatively cheap than when it is expensive. Energy prices are found to influence sunflower oil prices through short-run price dynamics.
Datos académicos de la tesis doctoral «An assessment of the impacts of recent food market shocks on food prices using price transmission analysis«
- Título de la tesis: An assessment of the impacts of recent food market shocks on food prices using price transmission analysis
- Autor: Islam M. I. K. Hassouneh
- Universidad: Politécnica de catalunya
- Fecha de lectura de la tesis: 29/02/2012
Dirección y tribunal
- Director de la tesis
- M. Teresa Serra Devesa
- Tribunal
- Presidente del tribunal: stephan v. Cramon-taubadel
- tim Lloyd (vocal)
- (vocal)
- (vocal)